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Several international reports estimate that, by the end of the decade, a substantial share of the professional abilities in demand will differ from those required today. Analyses carried out by global and European bodies agree in identifying continuous training as a stable feature of the labour market. The text below gathers the available estimates together with the main regulatory and statistical references.
The World Economic Forum’s global estimates
The Future of Jobs Report 2025, released by the World Economic Forum (WEF) in January 2025, offers a quantitative picture of the phenomenon, built from the responses of employers across numerous economies. According to the document, by 2030 some 39% of the core skills used within organisations will have changed. The figure marks a decline from the 2023 survey, when the estimate reached 44%: a partial stabilisation that, while tempering the most dramatic forecasts, confirms the scale of the shift under way.
The employment projections are equally clear. The analysis anticipates the creation of around 170 million new jobs worldwide and, at the same time, the disappearance of 92 million positions: a net positive balance of 78 million. Behind these figures lie the automation of processes, the spread of artificial intelligence and the push towards lower-impact production models. Consistent with this scenario, 77% of the companies surveyed state their intention to invest in retraining their staff, regarded as the main lever for managing the change.
Reskilling and upskilling, two responses to the demand for qualifications
The vocabulary of vocational training distinguishes two complementary paths, often cited with the English terms now in common use. Reskilling denotes the acquisition of entirely new qualifications, geared towards an activity different from the one previously carried out. Upskilling, by contrast, refers to the strengthening of an existing background, updated to meet evolving tasks within the same field.
The distinction is not purely terminological and carries practical consequences. The first path concerns those who find themselves changing occupation, often because their role is automated or redefined; the second involves those who remain in the same sector but must master renewed tools, languages and methods. Both directions gain weight in a context where the life cycle of technical knowledge is shortening. A specialist trained today may find, within a few years, that they are working with markedly different platforms and procedures, which turns ongoing updating into an ordinary condition rather than an exception.
European targets for digital professions
The European Union has translated similar awareness into measurable objectives. Decision (EU) 2022/2481, which establishes the “Digital Decade 2030” policy programme, sets the goal of reaching at least 20 million information and communication technology (ICT) specialists by the end of the reference period. The figure of the digital specialist encompasses, among others, software developers, data analysts, cybersecurity experts and systems designers, roles now cutting across almost every economic sector.
The starting point remains far from that goal. Data released by Eurostat on 27 May 2026 record that in 2025 employed ICT specialists in the Union numbered 10.45 million, equal to 5.0% of total employment. The female presence stands at just 19.5%, an indicator of a gender imbalance still pronounced in these occupations. Moving closer to the 20 million set as a target would therefore call for an increase close to a doubling within a narrow time frame, a condition that makes the ambition particularly demanding.
Italy’s position and the standardisation of AI role profiles
In the continental comparison, Italy occupies a lagging position. Again according to Eurostat, the share of ICT specialists in total employment stood at 3.8% in 2025, among the lowest values in the Union. The gap signals ample room for recovery, but also reflects a structural shortage of qualified technical figures.
On the standardisation front, a recent contribution comes from UNI (Ente Italiano di Normazione, the Italian standards body). The UNI 11621-8:2026 standard, published on 30 April 2026, defines twelve professional role profiles dedicated to artificial intelligence. The document was developed by the UNI/CT 526 commission at UNINFO, in collaboration with CT 533. The initiative provides a shared reference for describing duties, responsibilities and requirements in areas that still lack settled codification, easing the match between those seeking and those offering particular expertise.
Cedefop’s long-term projections
A perspective beyond 2030 comes from the European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (Cedefop). Its skills forecast for 2035 outlines rising demand for highly qualified occupations, for the ICT sector and for the scientific and technological disciplines known by the acronym STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics).
The engine of this dynamic is the so-called twin transition, digital and green, which is reshaping entire productive sectors. European employment as a whole is expected to grow modestly, at around 0.4% per year, yet the internal composition of the workforce will shift appreciably towards more highly prepared profiles. Added to this trend is the demographic variable: the ageing of the working population heightens the need to replace and update those approaching retirement.
Outlook
The available sources converge on several points. A net increase in positions is expected at global level, driven by emerging technologies and ecological conversion. Growth is anticipated in demand for well-prepared profiles, with ICT and the STEM subjects at the forefront. The orientation of companies towards internal retraining as a priority lever is also well established. Several aspects, by contrast, remain to be settled: how quickly training systems will align with the needs described, and the geographical and gender distribution of opportunities, uneven today. The quantitative targets set at European level provide a benchmark for the years to come.
In dialogue with the 2030 Agenda
- Goal 8 (Decent work and economic growth). A positive balance of posts does not in itself guarantee fair conditions: the aim is to accompany the conversion with adequate protections and balanced access to emerging opportunities.
- Goal 4 (Quality education). The centrality of retraining recalls the need for accessible pathways throughout life, a decisive factor for inclusion.
