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Strategic foresight refers to the set of methods that public administrations use to examine, in a structured way, the possible long-term developments of a given field. This piece outlines its definition, its main instruments and its limits, with reference to the practices adopted by the institutions of the European Union with a view to 2030 and the years beyond.
What strategic foresight means
The European Commission draws a clear distinction between this discipline and prediction. The aim is not to guess what will happen, but to explore in a systematic way a range of possible futures, together with the opportunities and risks that each of them carries, so as to steer choices towards a preferable outcome. A recurring image in the field is the futures cone, which arranges conceivable developments into four categories: possible, plausible, probable and preferable.
In practical terms the discipline draws on a number of established instruments. Megatrends analysis observes major global tendencies and the main drivers of change, from demography to technology and from climate to geopolitical configurations, in order to assess their impact on a particular area of action. Scenario building produces alternative and internally consistent descriptions of how a system might be configured over the long run: these are not prophecies, but a compass for taking decisions under uncertainty. Horizon scanning identifies weak signals at an early stage, that is, the emerging phenomena that appear marginal today yet could gain significance. By combining these approaches, administrations subject their initiatives to a form of testing.
How the institutions of the European Union apply it
The European Commission describes itself as one of the world’s leading public administrations in the use of these methods. Since 2020 it has published, on an annual basis, a Strategic Foresight Report that feeds into multiannual programming and the work programmes. The first document, in 2020, introduced resilience as a guiding criterion for policy; the following editions addressed the Union’s capacity to act (2021), the interplay between the green and digital transitions (2022) and the link between sustainability and well-being (2023). In 2024, the year of the European elections, no edition was issued. The 2025 report, entitled “Resilience 2.0”, returns to the theme of resilience in a changed setting, with a horizon extended to 2040 and the years beyond.
Coordination rests with the Secretariat-General and the Joint Research Centre (JRC). At the inter-institutional level, the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) brings together the European Parliament, the Council, the Commission and the European External Action Service. Every five years ESPAS publishes a report on global trends: the most recent, “Global Trends to 2040: Choosing Europe’s Future”, was presented on 15 April 2024.
From projections to measurable objectives: the digital decade 2030
One illustration of how long-term analysis translates into verifiable targets is the Digital Decade Policy Programme 2030, established by Decision (EU) 2022/2481, adopted by the European Parliament and the Council on 14 December 2022 and in force from January 2023. The programme sets quantified aims across four areas: digital skills, infrastructure and connectivity, the digitalisation of business, and digital public services. The targets for 2030 include a share of at least 80% of people aged between 16 and 74 with at least basic digital skills and the employment of at least 20 million information and communication technology (ICT) specialists with a balanced participation of women and men.
The value of such aims lies in their measurability. The Decision sets up a monitoring mechanism consisting of an annual report on the state of the digital decade and of national roadmaps. Periodic comparison between the aims and the actual figures makes it possible to adjust course: interim readings showed, for instance, that in 2023 the share of citizens with basic digital skills stood at 56%, some distance from the planned threshold.
What it is for and what limits it has
These methods neither remove uncertainty nor replace political decision-making. Their contribution is of a different kind: they widen the range of options under consideration, make implicit assumptions explicit and test the soundness of a measure before it is adopted. Within the European Union, anticipation is embedded in the Better Regulation agenda and in impact assessments.
The limits are equally acknowledged. Anticipatory exercises depend on the quality of the data and of the starting assumptions, and they may reflect the blind spots of those who conduct them. Events of low probability and high impact remain hard to capture. Long-term roadmaps, moreover, measure the distance from objectives without guaranteeing that they will be reached. For these reasons the outputs of such exercises are presented as aids to decision-making rather than as definitive verdicts.
Outlook
Strategic anticipation has become a stable component of European decision-making. The annual cadence of the Commission’s reports, the five-yearly ESPAS studies and the quantified targets of the digital decade outline a working method in which long-term analysis sits alongside ordinary programming. The strength of this arrangement depends on the ability to translate analysis into decisions and on the continuity of monitoring over time. The commitments already scheduled, from the Commission’s annual reports to the next ESPAS report, will provide concrete elements for assessing its progress.
In dialogue with the 2030 Agenda
- Goal 16 (Peace, justice and strong institutions): strategic anticipation strengthens the capacity of institutions to plan over the long term and to take informed and transparent decisions.
- Goal 17 (Partnerships for the goals): the European exercises are collaborative in nature and involve several institutions, the Member States, experts and international bodies.
- Goal 9 (Industry, innovation and infrastructure): programmes such as the digital decade link long-term projections to measurable investment in connectivity, skills and innovation.
