Over the past two years the electricity demand of data centres has become a matter of energy policy and no longer merely one of industrial efficiency. International projections indicate rapid growth concentrated in a short period of time, while the European Union has introduced the first obligations to collect and publish consumption data. This contribution gathers the main references, without claiming to be exhaustive.
The estimates of the International Energy Agency
In its report on the relationship between energy and artificial intelligence, the International Energy Agency (IEA) places global data centre electricity consumption at around 415 terawatt-hours in 2024 and expects it to more than double by 2030, to around 945 terawatt-hours, equivalent to slightly less than 3 per cent of global electricity consumption. Over the same period the consumption of centres dedicated to artificial intelligence grows faster than the average and more than quadruples. The estimated annual growth rate for data centres as a whole is around 15 per cent, more than four times that of the electricity consumption of all other sectors taken together (IEA).
The geographical distribution of the increase is not uniform. The United States accounts for the largest share of the expected growth, followed by China; in the United States data centres account for almost half of the increase in electricity demand expected between now and 2030.
The European reporting obligations for data centres
The European Union has chosen measurement as its first step. Directive (EU) 2023/1791, the Energy Efficiency Directive, introduced a reporting obligation for data centres, and Delegated Regulation (EU) 2024/1364 defined its content, establishing a European database and a common scheme of indicators (European Commission).
The obligation applies to data centres with an installed IT power demand of 500 kilowatts or more. Owners and operators must collect and publish, according to a uniform template, information on floor area, installed power, energy consumption, capacity utilisation, waste heat and water consumption. The first report was due by 15 September 2024, with annual reporting by 15 May in subsequent years.
The European figure and the scale of the phenomenon
The estimates cited in Commission documents place the weight of data centres at around 3.2 per cent of the Union’s total electricity demand by 2030, compared with 2.7 per cent in 2018; the 28 per cent increase by 2030 forecast in 2018, starting from 76.8 terawatt-hours, is considered by the Commission itself to have been overtaken by the development of artificial intelligence, which for some countries leads to forecasts of consumption doubling or tripling. These are projections, not measurements, and the very purpose of the European database is progressively to replace estimates with declared and comparable data.
It should be noted that the scope of the indicators includes water consumption, an item that receives less attention in public debate than energy consumption but that affects the siting of facilities and their compatibility with the local water context.
Outlook
The European regulatory framework is currently based on transparency of consumption and on the sustainability assessment of individual facilities, not on quantitative limits. The first time series in the database will make it possible, in the coming reporting cycles, to verify how far the projections diverge from actual data and to assess whether the current instruments are sufficient. What remains to be defined is the relationship between the growth in computing capacity envisaged by the European infrastructure development programmes and the targets for reducing consumption, as well as the treatment of waste heat, which the directive regards as a recoverable resource and which is currently exploited unevenly across Member States.
In dialogue with the 2030 Agenda
- Goal 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy) for the relationship between the growth in electricity demand and the composition of generation sources.
- Goal 9 (Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure) for the quality and resilience of computing infrastructure and of the grids that supply it.
- Goal 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production) for the reporting of energy and water consumption indicators and for the recovery of waste heat.
- Goal 13 (Climate Action) for the overall impact of digitalisation on emission reduction trajectories.
Sources
- International Energy Agency, report “Energy and AI”, executive summary
- International Energy Agency, chapter on energy demand from AI
- Directive (EU) 2023/1791 on energy efficiency
- Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2024/1364 on the common Union rating scheme for data centres
- European Commission news release of 15 March 2024 on the adoption of the scheme
